The research route is where Dexter-style deep answers and committee-style AI fragments should collapse into a single operator-readable note. The layout keeps qualitative judgment and quantitative context tightly coupled.
Names being refreshed with earnings and macro overlays.
AI memos drafted and waiting for operator edits.
Peer baskets queued for valuation workbench runs.
Leadership remains intact, but alpha is now coming from selecting cleaner fundamental follow-through inside the AI complex rather than buying index-level momentum.
A material re-tightening in rates, or evidence that enterprise AI budgets are slipping from implementation into experimentation.
Services margin progression, HBM supply normalization, credit spread stability, and whether breadth can expand beyond mega-cap leadership.
Supply bottlenecks are migrating from leading-edge compute into packaging, substrate, and high-bandwidth memory. Margin pools are shifting accordingly. Bullish catalyst: HBM mix expansion accelerates. Bearish catalyst: Gas and substrate bottlenecks persist.
Decarbonization capital now looks structurally longer than consensus assumes, particularly where power demand is increasingly tied to data center growth. Bullish catalyst: Grid parity in Iberia. Bearish catalyst: German subsidy retrenchment.
Regional balance sheets are diverging from the headline global tightening narrative. Sovereign spreads still do not reflect this shift cleanly. Bullish catalyst: Reserve accumulation trend. Bearish catalyst: Export softness in textiles.